The 2025 Delhi Assembly election was nothing short of a political turning point, reshaping the electoral landscape of India’s capital in ways few had anticipated. Data from Codemo and PeoplesPulse’s survey reveal major shifts in voter behaviour, gender-based voting patterns, and the underlying factors that influenced the outcome at the polls.
The survey was conducted over more than two months with a sample size of 30,000. Samples were collected from a telephone survey. Post-stratification, a statistical modelling technique was employed where a large poll sample was combined with Census data and analysed using multi-level regression to estimate voter preferences.
Peaks and troughs
In the early days of campaigning, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) remained ahead of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in perception vote share (voters’ perception of which party would win), indicating that a larger section of voters believed it could return to power.
The AAP’s perception vote share surged in the initial days following the announcement of schemes such as the Mahila Samman Yojana and Sanjeevani Yojana, rising to 58.1% till January 1 (Chart 1). However, its fortunes started declining after the BJP’s campaign machinery was set in motion ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first rally on January 5. From January 1, AAP’s perception vote share margin over the BJP dropped from +19.8% points to -11.8% points.
Chart 1 shows party-wise perception vote share trend (%)
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The AAP’s vote share peaked at 49.2% on January 1 and steadily declined thereafter, dropping to 40.5% by February 4. Meanwhile, the BJP and Congress improved their vote share by 4.7% points and 2.3% points respectively to reach 48.5% and 7% over the same period (Chart 2).
Chart 2 shows party-wise real vote share trend (%)
The AAP had huge electoral success in 2015 and 2020 banking on its promise of providing corruption-free governance and populist schemes. In 2025, the BJP and Congress capitalised on the alleged corruption in the Delhi excise policy, significantly damaging the AAP’s corruption-free party image. Additionally, the BJP was successful in convincing voters that it wouldn’t stop the welfare schemes and financial incentives provided by the AAP government if voted to power.
Female and male voters
The AAP announced the Mahila Samman Yojana scheme and opened registrations for it, which provided the party with an initial boost with female voters. Till January 10, the party received more than 67% of the female vote share, whereas the BJP managed 28%.
However, all the gains were undone in the final phase, with the AAP’s vote share among women dropping to 50.2%, while the BJP and Congress gained at its expense, rising to 41.8% and 6.1%, respectively. This decline could be attributed to the lack of financial assistance for female voters before the election, unlike in the Maharashtra and Jharkhand elections. Additionally, the BJP and Congress countered the AAP by promising similar schemes and financial incentives. In the survey, the AAP’s vote share among female voters was 50.2% in 2025 compared to 62.4% in the 2020 Delhi election.
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The BJP had an edge among male voters from the beginning and increased its margin over the AAP with time. In the survey, the BJP increased its vote share margin over the AAP from +4.3% points on January 1 to +17.5% points on February 4. The AAP had a 59% vote share among male voters in the 2020 election, which declined to 35.5% in 2025.
The AAP managed to secure more than 55% of the general category vote share in the 2020 Delhi election. However, in 2025, the BJP got 57.3% of the general category vote share and the AAP’s vote share dwindled to 31.9%.
Other Backward Classes (OBC) votes were traditionally split between different parties. However, during this election, the BJP gained ground among OBCs with a vote share of 48.6%, while the AAP got 41.1%. The AAP had an initial lead of +5.4% points over the BJP on January 1, but its margin with the BJP reduced significantly to -7.5% points by February 4.
In the final phase of the election, AAP witnessed a significant decline in the Scheduled Caste (SC) vote share while the BJP and Congress made gains, largely due to a targeted outreach towards SC voters. On February 4, the AAP’s lead over the BJP narrowed to +8.5% points, a sharp drop from its margin of +25.9% points on January 1.
Voters with origins in Bihar and Eastern Uttar Pradesh, also known as Purvanchali voters, were a decisive factor in many constituencies. The AAP had a lead of +3.5% points over the BJP a month before the election. A month later, the AAP capitulated to Purvanchali voters as its margin with the BJP reduced to -16.7% points (Chart 3).
Chart 3 shows party-wise vote share among Purvanchali voters (%)
Impact of Congress
While the Congress was not seen as a major player in this election, its impact was felt in key constituencies where it managed to cut into the AAP’s voter base. Among SC voters, its vote share was 7.8%, an improvement from 6.1% in the 2020 Delhi election survey.
Among Muslim voters, the Congress’ vote share was 19%, a significant improvement from 12% in the 2020 Delhi election survey. Though the AAP managed to win six out of the seven Muslim-dominated seats, its win margin dropped significantly.
Source: Survey conducted by Codemo and PeoplesPulse
Subhash Tanan is Director and co-founder at Codemo Technology Solutions
Also read:Delhi election results 2025: AAP’s vote share declines considerably in seats with high Muslim presence
Published – February 20, 2025 08:00 am IST