Supply chain strains and military drains: analysing wartime impact through data

Welcome back data enthusiasts.

Over the past month, as the war in West Asia has unfolded, we have moved beyond tracking missiles, conflict maps and casualty counts to look at something less visible but just as important — the spillover costs of the conflict.

In the last two weeks, we focused on how the war is reshaping supply chains, energy sector, commodities market and even agriculture here at home in India.

One of the biggest questions right now is how long this war can go on. To get at that, we turned to military supplies’ inventory.

In just days, the U.S. has burned through a significant share of its missile stockpiles, with some systems seeing usage that already exceeds annual procurement levels. Replacing them will cost billions and take time. Analysts suggest the war could last as long as Iran has missiles or until Gulf nations run out of interceptors.

That strain is already visible. Gulf countries have rushed to the U.S. for interceptors, prompting emergency military sales worth over $16 billion to the UAE and Kuwait, including multi-billion-dollar radar systems.

Read here: Why a prolonged war with Iran will constrain the U.S. | Data

Zooming out, the conflict has also moved through global energy markets.

Oil prices have risen sharply, something we have been tracking since Brent crude briefly touched close to $120 a barrel in early March. But, the impact is not uniform. For instance, China, with its early push into electric vehicles, is better insulated from fuel shocks compared to India where transport still relies heavily on fossil fuels.

EVs now make up over half of new car sales in China, while in India they remain in single digits, a gap that shows up more clearly when fuel prices rise.

Read here: U.S.-Israel-Iran war puts India’s EV gap in focus

There is also a less obvious but critical link to the war.

India’s fertilizer system is closely tied to West Asia through natural gas imports, which are essential for producing urea. With more than 60% of imported gas exposed to disruptions and a large share of urea imports coming from the same region, the risks extend beyond energy into agriculture.

Read here: India’s dual dependence on West Asia for urea production

We also looked at a trend that is breaking from what we normally expect in times of crisis. Gold, which usually rises when uncertainty spikes, moved in the opposite direction this time. Since the start of the conflict, prices have fallen sharply, with domestic prices dropping from nearly ₹1.9 lakh per 10 grams in January to around ₹1.3 lakh in late March.

The reason? Higher oil prices pushed up inflation concerns, shifting market expectations and prompting a need to secure liquidity. That has made government bonds and the dollar more attractive, pulling money away from gold. A liquidity crunch has forced investors to sell gold that has held value. For now, investors are turning away from gold to dollars, but experts remain confident gold hasn’t been dethroned yet from its safe haven status.

Read here: What is driving the fall in gold prices?

What ties these threads together is simple. The effects of modern conflicts move through supply chains, energy systems and everyday economics. For the data team, this is the story that matters. Not just where the war is unfolding, but how its effects are being felt.

Here are this week’s News in Numbers

98.45%

Share of withdrawn Rs 2,000 banknotes returned

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday said 98.45 per cent of the Rs 2,000 banknotes in circulation have been returned. The central bank announced the withdrawal of Rs 2,000 denomination banknotes from circulation on May 19, 2023. The total value of Rs 2000 banknotes in circulation, which was Rs 3.56 lakh crore at the close of business on May 19, 2023, when the withdrawal of the banknotes was announced, has declined to Rs 5,501 crore at the close of business on March 31, 2026, the RBI said.

Source: PTI

10,340

Number of audit queries ignored by Maharashtra departments

The Comptroller and Auditor General of India has flagged “systemic deficiencies” in Maharashtra’s governance, identifying Rs 891 crore in possible financial irregularities across more than 10,000 audit queries that various departments ignored despite repeated reminders over a decade. The CAG, in the report tabled in the recently concluded budget session of the state assembly, criticised the delay by departments in filing action taken notes (ATNs), stating that the state’s inability to address queries in 2,408 inspection reports (IRs) showed “legislative oversight”.

Source: PTI

142

Israel’s approved defence budget in 2026

in Israeli shekel billion. Israel’s parliament approved the 2026 budget early Monday, providing for a significant increase in military spending as the country remains engaged in wars on multiple fronts. As part of the updated budget, and in light of Operation ‘Roaring Lion’, more than NIS 30 billion (about $10 billion) has been added to the ministry of defence budget, bringing it to over NIS 142 billion, the parliament said in a statement.

Source: AFP

Published – April 02, 2026 07:02 pm IST