Voters wait in queues to cast their votes for the Delhi Assembly elections, at Mustafabad constituency in New Delhi on Wednesday
| Photo Credit: ANI
In the 2025 Delhi Assembly Elections, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) retained its dominance in constituencies with a significant Muslim voter base but witnessed a substantial decline in its vote share compared to the 2020 results. Data indicates that this drop was not due to gains by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Instead, a sizeable chunk of Muslim voters may have shifted their support to the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) and, to a lesser extent, to the Congress.
Delhi Assembly election results 2025: Follow LIVE updates
The following analysis is based on votes counted till 3.30 pm. The story will be updated when more votes are counted.
Chart 1 illustrates the vote share secured by AAP in the 2025 and the 2020 Delhi Assembly elections across constituencies with varying levels of Muslim population: over 25%, between 10% and 25%, and less than 10%.
In 2025, AAP secured approximately 51% of the votes in constituencies with Muslim population exceeding 25%. However, this marks a decline of 10.8 percentage points compared to the 2020 elections. The data also reveals a clear trend: AAP’s vote share increases as the proportion of the Muslim population in a constituency rises.
Chart 2 presents the same information as Chart 1, but for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies.
In 2025, the BJP and its allies secured approximately 31% of the votes in constituencies with Muslim population exceeding 25%. Despite the decline in AAP’s vote share in these constituencies, the NDA has not gained from this shift, as its own vote share has dropped by 1.1 percentage points compared to the 2020 elections. Also, a clear trend emerges: the NDA’s vote share decreases as the proportion of the Muslim population in a constituency increases.
The decline in AAP’s vote share in constituencies with a significant Muslim population can be attributed to two main factors: the performance of the AIMIM in two key seats and the overall improved performance of the Congress in these constituencies.
The AIMIM fielded candidates in two constituencies during the 2025 Delhi Assembly elections: Okhla and Mustafabad. In Okhla, the AIMIM candidate secured 27.1% of the vote, coming second to AAP’s Amanatullah Khan, who led with 48.5%. In Mustafabad, the AIMIM candidate garnered 16.6% of the vote, finishing third behind the BJP, which led with 42.4%, and AAP, which secured 33.6% to claim second place.
Chart 3 shows the same information as in chart 1, but for candidates other than AAP, BJP and the Congress.
Put together, parties other than the BJP, AAP, and Congress secured over 9.3% of the votes in seats with over 25% of the Muslim population, 7.9% points more than what they had managed in 2020.
Chart 4 shows the same information as in chart 1, but for the Congress party.
In 2025, the Congress secured approximately 9% of the votes in constituencies with Muslim population exceeding 25%, an increase of 4 percentage points compared to the previous elections. While Congress also followed AAP’s trend of gaining a higher vote share as the proportion of the Muslim population in a constituency increased, the extent of this trend was less pronounced.
Published – February 08, 2025 04:24 pm IST