Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath pays tribute to B.R. Ambedkar on his death anniversary, in Lucknow, Friday, Dec. 6, 2024.
| Photo Credit: Nand Kumar
On December 17, Home Minister Amit Shah made some contentious comments on B.R. Ambedkar, which not only sparked debates in Parliament but also led to scuffles. There have also been protests against his remarks in parts of the country. While many spokespersons of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have maintained that his words were taken out of context, the Opposition has been keeping the issue alive.
Importantly, this incident coincides with a shifting electoral dynamic which suggests that the BJP’s Dalit voter base is eroding, especially during national elections. It remains to be seen whether this act was a deliberate attempt by the BJP to subtly distance itself from the social group or an unprecedented lapse. In this context, let us examine the voting behaviour of Dalits in the last two decades.
Congress and Dalit support
For the most part of the 2000s, the Congress and several regional parties such as the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Rashtriya Janata Dal secured most of the Dalit votes by championing social justice, framing policies to tackle systemic discrimination and exclusion, and contributing to the larger Dalit cause. Conversely, the BJP was relatively popular among the upper castes and other well-off social groups such as some Other Backward Classes. Such group-based support is also contingent on the nature of party competition at the State level.
The National Election Study data by Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) reveals a pattern. While support for the Congress dropped significantly from the party’s heydays in the 2000s, the Congress still retained higher party loyalty among Dalits compared to the BJP in the era of BJP domination in the 2010s and 2020s. Table 1 also shows that the Grand Old Party enjoyed more loyalty among Dalits than possibly other groups. In terms of voter support, the BJP’s support among Dalits increased from what it was in 2004 and 2009, when it was merely 13% and 11% respectively.
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Rise and fall
In 2014, the BJP was voted with a majority in the Lok Sabha. Twice as many Dalits voted for the BJP as compared to 2009 (22% in 2014 compared to 11% in 2009). One can argue that this was due to an increased vote share, but voters at large were swayed by the leadership of Narendra Modi. As people were perturbed by rampant corruption, and dissatisfied with the previous government, price rise and underdevelopment, the BJP appeared to be a more promising alternative.
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In 2019, the party’s vote share among Dalits spiked to 32% (Table 2). We believe that this was because the BJP promoted Dalit leadership, tailored welfare schemes to specific groups, promised a better future, and formulated a strategy of social engineering which aimed to capitalise on nuanced sub-caste divisions.
Following the peak in 2019, though, there was a subsequent fall in support in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Not only did the BJP lose a significant number of seats, but it also received a lower vote share among Dalits by three points (although the BJP’s overall vote share in 2024 was similar to 2019).
The Congress, meanwhile, experienced a decline in Dalit support in 2014. But since then, its support among Dalits has remained steady (Table 2).
While the decline for the BJP may appear nominal, the fall was uneven both in States where the National Democratic Alliance gained votes and in States where it lost votes. Among the top three States where the BJP (along with an NDA alliance) performed poorly, the INDIA bloc effectively managed to win the votes away from the NDA, a trend that was particularly visible in Maharashtra (Table 3). The difference between Dalit votes for both alliances was 12 and 10 points in Uttar Pradesh and in Rajasthan, respectively.
There was also a loss of Dalit votes in States where the BJP outperformed its 2019 vote shares. For example, the NDA gained 15.74 points in Telangana, but here too the INDIA bloc garnered more Dalit votes (46% compared to NDA’s 23%) (Table 3). In Odisha, however, Dalit votes were significantly higher for the NDA. That said, the contest in Odisha was between the NDA and the Biju Janata Dal and the INDIA bloc was not significant.
Lessons to be learned
The overall picture suggests that the BJP’s peaking in vote shares in 2019 followed by a decline was more pronounced when it came to Dalit support, with the INDIA bloc gaining from this pattern.
Although public memory is short, and the Opposition’s exhortations may lose steam, Dalits might not be as forgiving about the BJP’s foibles when it comes to their icons or issues. While the BJP took steps to mitigate the fallout by calling a press conference and blaming the Congress for “distorting facts”, and undertaking other measures as part its damage control exercise, the lack of strong statements by senior leaders further raises suspicion that the party is subtly distancing itself from an important social group.
In contrast, the Congress has tried to present a strong ideological position on this issue. The Opposition will now try to keep the issue alive and mobilise Dalit groups. For the BJP, the lesson is to be careful and not find itself in such a controversy again.
Devesh Kumar is a researcher at Lokniti-CSDS; Sanjay Kumar is a professor with CSDS and a political commentator
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Published – January 09, 2025 08:00 am IST